Italy vs Northern Ireland

Tip WON Italy 2-0 Northern Ireland
TSP
Today Soccer Prediction match brief

Italy vs Northern Ireland Prediction

A focused football betting preview covering the main tip, odds value, confidence rating, recent form, head to head numbers and responsible staking guidance for Italy vs Northern Ireland in Euro World Cup Qualifier.

Main tipOver 1.5 Goals market
Model confidence80%over 1.5 goals
Fair odds1.25Based on model probability
Price edge-2.6%The price looks tight against the model rating
🏆 Euro World Cup Qualifier 📅 Thursday, 26th March 2026
I
Italy
L W W W W
2-0
VS
N
Northern Ireland
W L L W L
Expert Prediction
Over 1.5
Backing over 1.5 goals in this fixture.
Odds
1.21
decimal
Confidence
80%
Strong Pick
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💹 Betting Value Lab
Market typeGoals marketClassifies the main selection so bettors can compare it with similar prices.
Implied chance82.6%What the displayed decimal odds suggest before bookmaker margin.
Expected value per 100-3.2 unitsUses model probability against the available price.
Half Kelly guide0%A conservative staking reference, never a staking instruction.
Value note: The price looks tight against the model rating. Always compare several bookmakers, check team news close to kick off and avoid chasing losses.
Stake calculator
Potential return0
Net profit0
Expected value0
✅ Bettor Checklist
Check team news

Confirm lineups, injuries, rotation and goalkeeper changes before committing to the pick.

Compare prices

Small odds differences matter over time. Take the best regulated price available in your location.

Control stake size

Use fixed units, keep records and treat the confidence score as a guide rather than a guarantee.

⚡ Supporting Bets
Main pick
Over 1.5, over 1.5 goals
@1.21
Over 1.5 Goals80%
⚔ Head to Head
5
Italy
2
Draws
1
Northern Ireland
Supports Over 1.5 in 63% of H2H meetings (avg 1.8).
📊 Team Statistics
Italy Northern Ireland
2.5 Goals / Game 1.1
1.7 Conceded / Game 1.4
40% Clean Sheets 30%
6-1-3 W-D-L 4-1-5
Win Rate Comparison
60% 40%
📈 Form Ratings
Italy
Overall
6.3
Scoring
8.3
Defence
4.3
Northern Ireland
Overall
4.3
Scoring
3.7
Defence
5.3
🔀 Combination Markets
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 28%
Home Win & BTTS No 28%
Draw & BTTS Yes 5%
Draw & BTTS No 5%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 18%
Away Win & BTTS No 18%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 33%
Home Win & Under 2.5 22%
Draw & Over 2.5 5%
Draw & Under 2.5 4%
Away Win & Over 2.5 22%
Away Win & Under 2.5 14%
📜 Match History
Head to Head
15.11.21
WCQ: Northern Ireland
0
Italy
0
25.03.21
WCQ: Italy
2
Northern Ireland
0
11.10.11
EUR: Italy
3
Northern Ireland
0
08.10.10
EUR: Northern Ireland
0
Italy
0
06.06.09
FI: Italy
3
Northern Ireland
0
03.06.03
FI: Italy
2
Northern Ireland
0
15.01.58
WCQ: Northern Ireland
2
Italy
1
25.04.57
WCQ: Italy
1
Northern Ireland
0
Recent Results
Italy
16.11.25
WCQ: Italy
1
Norway
4
L
13.11.25
WCQ: Moldova
0
Italy
2
W
14.10.25
WCQ: Italy
3
Israel
0
W
11.10.25
WCQ: Estonia
1
Italy
3
W
08.09.25
WCQ: Israel
4
Italy
5
W
05.09.25
WCQ: Italy
5
Estonia
0
W
09.06.25
WCQ: Italy
2
Moldova
0
W
06.06.25
WCQ: Norway
3
Italy
0
L
23.03.25
UNL: Germany
3
Italy
3
D
20.03.25
UNL: Italy
1
Germany
2
L
Northern Ireland
17.11.25
WCQ: Northern Ireland
1
Luxembourg
0
W
14.11.25
WCQ: Slovakia
1
Northern Ireland
0
L
13.10.25
WCQ: Northern Ireland
0
Germany
1
L
10.10.25
WCQ: Northern Ireland
2
Slovakia
0
W
07.09.25
WCQ: Germany
3
Northern Ireland
1
L
04.09.25
WCQ: Luxembourg
1
Northern Ireland
3
W
10.06.25
FI: Northern Ireland
1
Iceland
0
W
07.06.25
FI: Denmark
2
Northern Ireland
1
L
25.03.25
FI: Sweden
5
Northern Ireland
1
L
21.03.25
FI: Northern Ireland
1
Switzerland
1
D
📝 Tactical Analysis

On Thursday, 26th March 2026, Italy host Northern Ireland in Euro World Cup Qualifier. Our analysis points to over 1.5 goals as the standout bet.

Italy come into this showing mixed form, with 6W 1D 3L from 10 matches.

Northern Ireland are inconsistent on the road, 4W 1D 5L in 10 games.

H2H: Italy won 5 of 8 meetings vs Northern Ireland's 1, 2 draws. BTTS in 13%.

With all factors considered, over 1.5 goals at 1.21 represents the strongest value angle here.


Locking down a safe bet requires some serious digging into the stats, making this Euro World Cup Qualifier encounter a brilliant option for careful punters. Success here means leaving your team loyalties behind and just trusting the math to do the heavy lifting. The home camp’s situation is the very first thing we look at.

Their standard form sets the baseline market price, but seasoned bettors always look a little deeper. Breaking down their latest matches reveals the clear truth about their attacking sharpness and defensive solidity right now. The away team arrives with a different set of numbers to crunch.

We have to contrast their season-long form with the urgent reality of their last few games to see if they are a trap or a genuinely smart play. Historical rivalries are equally crucial to getting this right. A deep dive into their past meetings often exposes recurring advantages that standard models totally ignore.

Blending those historical patterns with today’s form guides us to a concrete and confident choice. Taking all points into account, the standout wager is obvious. Our featured pick is Over 1.5, representing the smartest entry to the market at the available @1.21 odds.

Once the game is in-play, the betting window closes. Ultimately, the final score will validate our data-driven approach. Do not miss our other daily choices.

📌 Prediction Method

How we read this match: the page combines form trends, head to head data, scoring patterns, clean sheet rates, market type and listed odds to shape a practical betting view.

The numbers support the preview, but football remains volatile. Treat this as a researched opinion, compare prices and only bet with money set aside for entertainment.

❓ FAQ
What is the best betting tip for Italy vs Northern Ireland?
Our pick is Over 1.5, over 1.5 goals at odds of ~1.21. Our prediction engine gives this a 80% confidence rating.
How has Italy performed in their recent matches?
Italy heads into this fixture with a record of 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 games.
What is the recent form of Northern Ireland?
Northern Ireland has recorded 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 matches.
What is the Head-to-Head (H2H) record between Italy and Northern Ireland?
In their last 8 meetings, Italy has won 5 times, Northern Ireland has won 1 times, and there have been 2 draws.
Are we expecting a high-scoring match (Over/Under 2.5 Goals)?
Recent matches involving these teams average 3.4 goals per game. Furthermore, BTTS has landed in 13% of their previous H2H encounters.