CSKA Sofia vs Derry City

Tip WON CSKA Sofia 3-2 Derry City
TSP
Today Soccer Prediction match brief

CSKA Sofia vs Derry City Prediction

A focused football betting preview covering the main tip, odds value, confidence rating, recent form, head to head numbers and responsible staking guidance for CSKA Sofia vs Derry City in Europa League Qualifier.

Main tip1 Result market
Model confidence52%CSKA Sofia to win
Fair odds1.92Based on model probability
Price edge-28%The price looks tight against the model rating
🏆 Europa League Qualifier 📅 Thursday, 9th July 2026 ⏰ 7:00 pm 📍 National Stadium Vasil Levski (Sofia)
C
CSKA Sofia
W W L W L
3-2
VS
D
Derry City
L W D L W
Expert Prediction
1
Backing CSKA Sofia to win in this fixture.
Odds
1.25
decimal
Confidence
52%
Solid Pick
H 50%D 30%A 20%
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💹 Betting Value Lab
Market typeResult marketClassifies the main selection so bettors can compare it with similar prices.
Implied chance80%What the displayed decimal odds suggest before bookmaker margin.
Expected value per 100-35 unitsUses model probability against the available price.
Half Kelly guide0%A conservative staking reference, never a staking instruction.
Value note: The price looks tight against the model rating. Always compare several bookmakers, check team news close to kick off and avoid chasing losses.
Stake calculator
Potential return0
Net profit0
Expected value0
✅ Bettor Checklist
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Confirm lineups, injuries, rotation and goalkeeper changes before committing to the pick.

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Use fixed units, keep records and treat the confidence score as a guide rather than a guarantee.

⚔ Head to Head
1
CSKA Sofia
1
Draws
0
Derry City
Mixed CSKA Sofia won 1 of the last 2 meetings (1 draws).
📊 Team Statistics
CSKA Sofia Derry City
1.2 Goals / Game 1.3
1.2 Conceded / Game 1.3
33% Clean Sheets 30%
5-1-3 W-D-L 2-4-4
Win Rate Comparison
56% 20%
📈 Form Ratings
CSKA Sofia
Overall
5.9
Scoring
4.1
Defence
5.9
Derry City
Overall
3.2
Scoring
4.3
Defence
5.7
🔀 Combination Markets
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 26%
Home Win & BTTS No 29%
Draw & BTTS Yes 12%
Draw & BTTS No 13%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 9%
Away Win & BTTS No 11%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 26%
Home Win & Under 2.5 29%
Draw & Over 2.5 12%
Draw & Under 2.5 13%
Away Win & Over 2.5 9%
Away Win & Under 2.5 11%
📜 Match History
Head to Head
06.08.09EL
Derry City
1
CSKA Sofia
1
30.07.09EL
CSKA Sofia
1
Derry City
0
Recent Results
CSKA Sofia
03.07.26CF
CSKA Sofia
3
Marek
0
W
28.06.26CF
Odra Opole
2
CSKA Sofia
3
W
24.06.26CF
CSKA Sofia
0
Polissya Zhytomyr
4
L
20.06.26CF
Grosuplje
1
CSKA Sofia
2
W
25.05.261L
Ludogorets
1
CSKA Sofia
0
L
16.05.261L
Levski Sofia
2
CSKA Sofia
0
L
13.05.261L
CSKA Sofia
1
CSKA 1948 Sofia
1
D
08.05.261L
CSKA 1948 Sofia
0
CSKA Sofia
1
W
03.05.261L
CSKA Sofia
1
Ludogorets
0
W
Derry City
03.07.26PD
Derry City
2
Waterford
4
L
26.06.26PD
Derry City
2
Drogheda
0
W
22.06.26PD
Shamrock Rovers
1
Derry City
1
D
19.06.26PD
Galway
2
Derry City
1
L
12.06.26PD
Derry City
4
Bohemians
1
W
29.05.26PD
Dundalk
2
Derry City
1
L
25.05.26PD
Derry City
0
Shelbourne
0
D
22.05.26PD
Derry City
0
St. Patricks
0
D
15.05.26PD
Waterford
2
Derry City
2
D
08.05.26PD
Drogheda
1
Derry City
0
L
📝 Tactical Analysis

On Thursday, 9th July 2026, CSKA Sofia host Derry City at National Stadium Vasil Levski (Sofia) in Europa League Qualifier. Our analysis points to CSKA Sofia to win as the standout bet.

CSKA Sofia come into this showing mixed form, with 5W 1D 3L from 9 matches.

Derry City are struggling away, 2W 4D 4L in 10 games.

H2H: CSKA Sofia won 1 of 2 meetings vs Derry City's 0, 1 draws. BTTS in 50%.

With all factors considered, cska sofia to win at 1.25 represents the strongest value angle here.


Here is something worth keeping in mind whenever you stare at a set of odds: the price reflects what the market expects, not what is destined to happen. Markets are sharp — they soak up information fast — but they are not perfect, and football, with its small margins, leaves room for anyone willing to do the work. This Europa League Qualifier fixture is a study in where that room sometimes hides.

The home team’s recent record reads 3 wins, 2 losses from their last 5 games, and that is the figure driving their current price. But we asked the harder question: what does this side actually look like right now? We are watching for consistency in how they defend, how quickly they turn defence into attack, and whether their strongest eleven is fit and available. The recent run tells that story far more honestly than any season-long total, and National Stadium Vasil Levski (Sofia) will magnify it.

For the visitors, 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses from their last 5 games sits on the board for all to see — but the trend inside that record is the interesting part. Recent away games reveal whether the travelling form is built on early-season momentum that has since faded, or genuine, consistent road quality right up to this week. We trust the recent sample.

With the analysis complete, our recommendation is 1 at @1.25, a call our model settles at roughly 50,30,20%. The fixture kicks off at 7:00 pm.

The full set of today’s tips is live on the site, each one worked through the same way — do not miss the rest of the card before you finalise anything.

📌 Prediction Method

How we read this match: the page combines form trends, head to head data, scoring patterns, clean sheet rates, market type and listed odds to shape a practical betting view.

The numbers support the preview, but football remains volatile. Treat this as a researched opinion, compare prices and only bet with money set aside for entertainment.

❓ FAQ
What is the best betting tip for CSKA Sofia vs Derry City?
Our pick is 1, CSKA Sofia to win at odds of ~1.25. Our prediction engine gives this a 52% confidence rating.
How has CSKA Sofia performed in their recent matches?
CSKA Sofia heads into this fixture with a record of 5W 1D 3L from their last 9 games.
What is the recent form of Derry City?
Derry City has recorded 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 matches.
What is the Head-to-Head (H2H) record between CSKA Sofia and Derry City?
In their last 2 meetings, CSKA Sofia has won 1 times, Derry City has won 0 times, and there have been 1 draws.
Are we expecting a high-scoring match (Over/Under 2.5 Goals)?
Recent matches involving these teams average 2.5 goals per game. Furthermore, BTTS has landed in 50% of their previous H2H encounters.
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