Arsenal vs Burnley

TSP
Today Soccer Prediction match brief

Arsenal vs Burnley Prediction

A focused football betting preview covering the main tip, odds value, confidence rating, recent form, head to head numbers and responsible staking guidance for Arsenal vs Burnley in Premier League.

Main tip1 Result market
Model confidence57%Arsenal to win
Fair odds1.75Based on model probability
Price edge-34.7%The price looks tight against the model rating
🏆 Premier League 📅 Monday, 18th May 2026
A
Arsenal
W W W D W
VS
B
Burnley
D L L L L
Expert Prediction
1
Backing Arsenal to win in this fixture.
Odds
1.09
decimal
Confidence
57%
Solid Pick
H 60%D 20%A 20%
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💹 Betting Value Lab
Market typeResult marketClassifies the main selection so bettors can compare it with similar prices.
Implied chance91.7%What the displayed decimal odds suggest before bookmaker margin.
Expected value per 100-37.9 unitsUses model probability against the available price.
Half Kelly guide0%A conservative staking reference, never a staking instruction.
Value note: The price looks tight against the model rating. Always compare several bookmakers, check team news close to kick off and avoid chasing losses.
Stake calculator
Potential return0
Net profit0
Expected value0
✅ Bettor Checklist
Check team news

Confirm lineups, injuries, rotation and goalkeeper changes before committing to the pick.

Compare prices

Small odds differences matter over time. Take the best regulated price available in your location.

Control stake size

Use fixed units, keep records and treat the confidence score as a guide rather than a guarantee.

⚡ Supporting Bets
Main pick
1, Arsenal to win
@1.09
Arsenal Clean Sheet60%
⚔ Head to Head
6
Arsenal
3
Draws
1
Burnley
Supports Arsenal won 6 of the last 10 meetings (3 draws).
📊 Team Statistics
Arsenal Burnley
1.1 Goals / Game 0.9
0.7 Conceded / Game 2.2
60% Clean Sheets 10%
5-2-3 W-D-L 0-3-7
Win Rate Comparison
50% 0%
📈 Form Ratings
Arsenal
Overall
5.6
Scoring
3.7
Defence
7.7
Burnley
Overall
0.9
Scoring
3.0
Defence
2.7
🔀 Combination Markets
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 34%
Home Win & BTTS No 34%
Draw & BTTS Yes 17%
Draw & BTTS No 17%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 0%
Away Win & BTTS No 0%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 30%
Home Win & Under 2.5 37%
Draw & Over 2.5 15%
Draw & Under 2.5 18%
Away Win & Over 2.5 0%
Away Win & Under 2.5 0%
📜 Match History
Head to Head
01.11.25PL
Burnley
0
Arsenal
2
17.02.24PL
Burnley
0
Arsenal
5
11.11.23PL
Arsenal
3
Burnley
1
23.01.22PL
Arsenal
0
Burnley
0
18.09.21PL
Burnley
0
Arsenal
1
06.03.21PL
Burnley
1
Arsenal
1
13.12.20PL
Arsenal
0
Burnley
1
02.02.20PL
Burnley
0
Arsenal
0
17.08.19PL
Arsenal
2
Burnley
1
12.05.19PL
Burnley
1
Arsenal
3
Recent Results
Arsenal
10.05.26PL
West Ham
0
Arsenal
1
W
05.05.26CL
Arsenal
1
Atl. Madrid
0
W
02.05.26PL
Arsenal
3
Fulham
0
W
29.04.26CL
Atl. Madrid
1
Arsenal
1
D
25.04.26PL
Arsenal
1
Newcastle
0
W
19.04.26PL
Manchester City
2
Arsenal
1
L
15.04.26CL
Arsenal
0
Sporting CP
0
D
11.04.26PL
Arsenal
1
Bournemouth
2
L
07.04.26CL
Sporting CP
0
Arsenal
1
W
04.04.26FAC
Southampton
2
Arsenal
1
L
Burnley
10.05.26PL
Burnley
2
Aston Villa
2
D
01.05.26PL
Leeds
3
Burnley
1
L
22.04.26PL
Burnley
0
Manchester City
1
L
19.04.26PL
Nottingham
4
Burnley
1
L
11.04.26PL
Burnley
0
Brighton
2
L
21.03.26PL
Fulham
3
Burnley
1
L
14.03.26PL
Burnley
0
Bournemouth
0
D
03.03.26PL
Everton
2
Burnley
0
L
28.02.26PL
Burnley
3
Brentford
4
L
21.02.26PL
Chelsea
1
Burnley
1
D
📝 Tactical Analysis

On Monday, 18th May 2026, Arsenal host Burnley in Premier League. Our analysis points to Arsenal to win as the standout bet.

Arsenal come into this showing mixed form, with 5W 2D 3L from 10 matches.

Burnley are struggling away, 0W 3D 7L in 10 games.

H2H: Arsenal won 6 of 10 meetings vs Burnley's 1, 3 draws. BTTS in 40%.

With all factors considered, arsenal to win at 1.09 represents the strongest value angle here.


Locking down a safe bet requires some serious digging into the stats, making this Premier League encounter a brilliant option for careful punters. Success here means leaving your team loyalties behind and just trusting the math to do the heavy lifting. The home camp’s situation is the very first thing we look at.

Their standard form sets the baseline market price, but seasoned bettors always look a little deeper. Breaking down their latest matches reveals the clear truth about their attacking sharpness and defensive solidity right now. The away team arrives with a different set of numbers to crunch.

We have to contrast their season-long form with the urgent reality of their last few games to see if they are a trap or a genuinely smart play. Historical rivalries are equally crucial to getting this right. A deep dive into their past meetings often exposes recurring advantages that standard models totally ignore.

Blending those historical patterns with today’s form guides us to a concrete and confident choice. Taking all points into account, the standout wager is obvious. Our featured pick is 1, representing the smartest entry to the market at the available @1.09 odds.

Once the game is in-play, the betting window closes. Ultimately, the final score will validate our data-driven approach. Do not miss our other daily choices.

📌 Prediction Method

How we read this match: the page combines form trends, head to head data, scoring patterns, clean sheet rates, market type and listed odds to shape a practical betting view.

The numbers support the preview, but football remains volatile. Treat this as a researched opinion, compare prices and only bet with money set aside for entertainment.

❓ FAQ
What is the best betting tip for Arsenal vs Burnley?
Our pick is 1, Arsenal to win at odds of ~1.09. Our prediction engine gives this a 57% confidence rating.
How has Arsenal performed in their recent matches?
Arsenal heads into this fixture with a record of 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 games.
What is the recent form of Burnley?
Burnley has recorded 0W 3D 7L across their last 10 matches.
What is the Head-to-Head (H2H) record between Arsenal and Burnley?
In their last 10 meetings, Arsenal has won 6 times, Burnley has won 1 times, and there have been 3 draws.
Are we expecting a high-scoring match (Over/Under 2.5 Goals)?
Recent matches involving these teams average 2.5 goals per game. Furthermore, BTTS has landed in 40% of their previous H2H encounters.
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