Pogradeci vs Kastrioti

Tip WON Pogradeci 3-0 Kastrioti
TSP
Today Soccer Prediction match brief

Pogradeci vs Kastrioti Prediction

A focused football betting preview covering the main tip, odds value, confidence rating, recent form, head to head numbers and responsible staking guidance for Pogradeci vs Kastrioti in Albanian Abissnet Superiore.

Main tip1 Result market
Model confidence50%Pogradeci to win
Fair odds2.00Based on model probability
Price edge-24.6%The price looks tight against the model rating
🏆 Albanian Abissnet Superiore 📅 Thursday, 7th May 2026
P
Pogradeci
L D L W W
3-0
VS
K
Kastrioti
W L L L L
Expert Prediction
1
Backing Pogradeci to win in this fixture.
Odds
1.34
decimal
Confidence
50%
Solid Pick
H 50%D 30%A 20%
⚠ 18+ · Gamble responsibly · GambleAware · GamCare
💹 Betting Value Lab
Market typeResult marketClassifies the main selection so bettors can compare it with similar prices.
Implied chance74.6%What the displayed decimal odds suggest before bookmaker margin.
Expected value per 100-33 unitsUses model probability against the available price.
Half Kelly guide0%A conservative staking reference, never a staking instruction.
Value note: The price looks tight against the model rating. Always compare several bookmakers, check team news close to kick off and avoid chasing losses.
Stake calculator
Potential return0
Net profit0
Expected value0
✅ Bettor Checklist
Check team news

Confirm lineups, injuries, rotation and goalkeeper changes before committing to the pick.

Compare prices

Small odds differences matter over time. Take the best regulated price available in your location.

Control stake size

Use fixed units, keep records and treat the confidence score as a guide rather than a guarantee.

⚡ Supporting Bets
Main pick
1, Pogradeci to win
@1.34
Over 2.5 Goals70% Over 1.5 Goals85%
⚔ Head to Head
4
Pogradeci
2
Draws
4
Kastrioti
Against Pogradeci won 4 of the last 10 meetings (2 draws).
📊 Team Statistics
Pogradeci Kastrioti
2.4 Goals / Game 1.4
1.1 Conceded / Game 2.3
30% Clean Sheets 0%
6-2-2 W-D-L 2-0-8
Win Rate Comparison
60% 20%
📈 Form Ratings
Pogradeci
Overall
6.6
Scoring
8.0
Defence
6.3
Kastrioti
Overall
2.0
Scoring
4.7
Defence
2.3
🔀 Combination Markets
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 37%
Home Win & BTTS No 30%
Draw & BTTS Yes 6%
Draw & BTTS No 5%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 12%
Away Win & BTTS No 10%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 47%
Home Win & Under 2.5 20%
Draw & Over 2.5 8%
Draw & Under 2.5 3%
Away Win & Over 2.5 15%
Away Win & Under 2.5 7%
📜 Match History
Head to Head
04.04.26KP
Pogradeci
5
Kastrioti
1
24.01.26KP
Kastrioti
2
Pogradeci
4
25.10.25KP
Pogradeci
4
Kastrioti
0
23.02.25KP
Kastrioti
0
Pogradeci
0
09.11.24KP
Kastrioti
2
Pogradeci
0
24.08.24KP
Pogradeci
3
Kastrioti
1
12.02.12SL
Pogradeci
1
Kastrioti
1
12.09.11SL
Kastrioti
4
Pogradeci
0
04.02.09KP
Kastrioti
1
Pogradeci
0
31.08.08KP
Pogradeci
0
Kastrioti
1
Recent Results
Pogradeci
03.05.26KP
AF Luftetari
3
Pogradeci
0
L
25.04.26KP
Pogradeci
1
Skenderbeu
1
D
19.04.26KP
Laci
2
Pogradeci
0
L
11.04.26KP
Pogradeci
5
Kukesi
1
W
04.04.26KP
Pogradeci
5
Kastrioti
1
W
28.03.26CF
Struga
0
Pogradeci
0
D
22.03.26KP
Burreli
0
Pogradeci
3
W
18.03.26KP
Pogradeci
3
Iliria Fushe-Kruje
0
W
14.03.26KP
Besa Kavaje
2
Pogradeci
3
W
07.03.26KP
Pogradeci
4
Korabi Peshkopi
1
W
Kastrioti
03.05.26KP
Lushnja
1
Kastrioti
4
W
25.04.26KP
Kastrioti
1
AF Luftetari
2
L
19.04.26KP
Skenderbeu
4
Kastrioti
0
L
11.04.26KP
Kastrioti
1
Laci
2
L
04.04.26KP
Pogradeci
5
Kastrioti
1
L
22.03.26KP
Kastrioti
0
Kukesi
2
L
18.03.26KP
Kastrioti
5
Burreli
2
W
14.03.26KP
Iliria Fushe-Kruje
1
Kastrioti
0
L
07.03.26KP
Kastrioti
2
Besa Kavaje
3
L
28.02.26KP
Korabi Peshkopi
1
Kastrioti
0
L
📝 Tactical Analysis

On Thursday, 7th May 2026, Pogradeci host Kastrioti in Albanian Abissnet Superiore. Our analysis points to Pogradeci to win as the standout bet.

Pogradeci come into this showing mixed form, with 6W 2D 2L from 10 matches.

Kastrioti are struggling away, 2W 0D 8L in 10 games.

H2H: Pogradeci won 4 of 10 meetings vs Kastrioti's 4, 2 draws. BTTS in 40%.

With all factors considered, pogradeci to win at 1.34 represents the strongest value angle here.


Locking down a safe bet requires some serious digging into the stats, making this Albanian Abissnet Superiore encounter a brilliant option for careful punters. Success here means leaving your team loyalties behind and just trusting the math to do the heavy lifting. The home camp’s situation is the very first thing we look at.

Their standard form sets the baseline market price, but seasoned bettors always look a little deeper. Breaking down their latest matches reveals the clear truth about their attacking sharpness and defensive solidity right now. The away team arrives with a different set of numbers to crunch.

We have to contrast their season-long form with the urgent reality of their last few games to see if they are a trap or a genuinely smart play. Historical rivalries are equally crucial to getting this right. A deep dive into their past meetings often exposes recurring advantages that standard models totally ignore.

Blending those historical patterns with today’s form guides us to a concrete and confident choice. Taking all points into account, the standout wager is obvious. Our featured pick is 1, representing the smartest entry to the market at the available @1.34 odds.

Once the game is in-play, the betting window closes. Ultimately, the final score will validate our data-driven approach. Do not miss our other daily choices.

📌 Prediction Method

How we read this match: the page combines form trends, head to head data, scoring patterns, clean sheet rates, market type and listed odds to shape a practical betting view.

The numbers support the preview, but football remains volatile. Treat this as a researched opinion, compare prices and only bet with money set aside for entertainment.

❓ FAQ
What is the best betting tip for Pogradeci vs Kastrioti?
Our pick is 1, Pogradeci to win at odds of ~1.34. Our prediction engine gives this a 50% confidence rating.
How has Pogradeci performed in their recent matches?
Pogradeci heads into this fixture with a record of 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 games.
What is the recent form of Kastrioti?
Kastrioti has recorded 2W 0D 8L across their last 10 matches.
What is the Head-to-Head (H2H) record between Pogradeci and Kastrioti?
In their last 10 meetings, Pogradeci has won 4 times, Kastrioti has won 4 times, and there have been 2 draws.
Are we expecting a high-scoring match (Over/Under 2.5 Goals)?
Recent matches involving these teams average 3.6 goals per game. Furthermore, BTTS has landed in 40% of their previous H2H encounters.